Sequence-of-Returns Risk
Two retirees, identical average returns, same withdrawals. One dies rich, one goes broke. The only difference is the ord
Grounded in the research on sequence risk
While you're saving
During the accumulation years, order barely matters. You're adding money, not pulling it out, so a crash early just means you buy cheap and ride the recovery up. A portfolio with a bad first decade and a great second can finish identical to its mirror image. No withdrawals, no real sequence risk. The danger is dormant. It only wakes up the day you flip from saver to spender.
The day you retire
Now you withdraw a fixed amount every year regardless of what the market did. That single change weaponizes order. Picture two $1M portfolios both pulling $40k a year, both averaging the exact same return over 20 years, just in opposite sequences. One ends with millions left. The other runs dry. Same math, same average. The order alone decided who survived.