
Convexity
When the curve bends in your favor, more chaos makes you richer. Here's how to build that.
Grounded in the research on convexity (finance)
Find the smile shape
Convexity is a payoff where the line curves up in your favor: small downside, explosive upside. Nassim Taleb's whole frame in Antifragile (2012). The math: a convex function has a positive second derivative, so your gain from a big move beats your loss from an equal move. Look at any bet and ask which way the curve bends. Bent up = you want more volatility, not less.
Cap the downside first
Convexity is worthless if a bad draw wipes you out. Lock your maximum loss before you chase the upside. Buying an option, you can only lose the premium but the gain is uncapped. That asymmetry is the engine. Never take a bet where the tail can erase you, no matter how juicy the upside looks. Bounded loss, unbounded gain, in that order.